July 23, 2010
Leading Economic Indicators Dip
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2 percent in June, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent increase in May, the New York-based Conference Board reported yesterday. The index, which is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months, was pulled down by employment data -- fewer hours worked in factories and more people filing for jobless aid -- and dropping stock prices.
“The indicators point to slower growth through the fall,” Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said. Goldstein explained that the manufacturing rebound will likely slow and there is “little indication” of a pickup in the service sector, which employs about 80 percent of the
U.S.
work force. Read more.
July 14, 2010
Retail Sales Fall 0.5 Percent – Auto Sales and House Related
Sectors Drive
Decline
In June, retail sales fell for the second straight month, declining 0.5 percent. These two drops came after seven months of increases, including a very strong gain in March. Though the sales report is certainly weak, details are a bit more positive. The index was driven down largely due to a drop in auto sales, which tend to be very volatile. Core sales, which exclude gasoline and autos, rose by 0.1 percent. Furthermore, total sales continued to be held back by continued declines in sales at building supplies and furniture stores. Both of these sectors have been harmed by the fallback in home purchases following the end of the home buyer tax credit. Retail sales are clearly decelerating; however, they will likely continue to grow modestly. This pattern is consistent with other indicators of late that have shown a softening of economic recovery. From a year prior, total sales were up 4.8 percent, compared to 8.7 percent growth in April. Core sales were up 3.9 percent from a year earlier, compared to being up 5.0 percent in April.
|
Mo.
/
Mo.
% Change |
Jun |
May |
Apr |
Mar |
Feb |
Jan |
| Total Sales |
-0.5 |
-1.1 |
0.3 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Ex Autos and Gas |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
| Year/ Year % Change |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Sales |
4.8 |
6.9 |
8.7 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
| Ex Autos and Gas |
3.9 |
3.9 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
2.6 |
1.5 |
10.07.14 (Source: Census Bureau)
Trade Deficit Increases in May
The
U.S.
trade deficit increased 4.8 percent to $42.3 billion in May, the largest monthly amount since November 2008, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Exports rose 2.4 percent in May to $152.3 billion -- the largest monthly total since September 2008 -- with heavy machinery, medical equipment, power generators and commercial planes pacing the increase. Imports rose 2.9 percent to $194.5 billion, reflecting higher demand for foreign-made cars and consumer goods such as clothing, furniture and electronic appliances.
July 9, 2010
Consumer Credit Declines in May
Consumer credit fell at a 4.5 percent annual rate -- or $9.15 billion -- in May, the 15th monthly decline in 16 months, the Federal Reserve reported yesterday. Revolving credit, the borrowing category that includes credit cards, dropped at a 10.5 percent annual rate, or $7.32 billion in May, the 20th straight monthly decrease. The demand for auto loans and other types of nonrevolving credit fell at a 1.4 percent annual rate, or $1.82 billion.
The Fed also said that consumer credit declined by $14.9 billion in April, a sharp downward revision of the $995 million gain it had initially reported. Read more.
July 7, 2010
AmBA
: Consumer Loan Delinquencies Continue Broad Based Improvement In Q1
Consumer loan delinquencies showed broad-based improvement for the third quarter in a row, a sign of continued modest improvement in the
U.S.
economy, according to the American Bankers Association’s Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin. The composite ratio, which tracks delinquencies in eight closed-end installment loan categories, fell 21 basis points to 2.98 percent of all accounts from 3.19 percent of all accounts in the previous quarter.
Bank card delinquencies fell more than half of one percent to 3.88 percent of all accounts which is below the 15-year average (3.93 percent). This is the first time since the second quarter of 2002 that bank card delinquencies have fallen below 4 percent. The
ABA
report defines a delinquency as a late payment that is 30 days or more overdue.
AmBA Chief Economist James Chessen said the improvements reflect concerted efforts by consumers to shore up their finances. “It’s clear that consumer balance sheets are improving. People are borrowing less, saving more and building wealth. These are all positive signs, ” he said.
The full press release, which includes delinquency rates of various loan types and audio commentary from Chessen, can be found here.
10.07.07 (Source: American Bankers Association)
June 16, 2010
AmBA
: Bank Economists See Moderate But Sustained Recovery
The AmBA Economic Advisory Committee released its semiannual economic forecast. The committee sees that the economy is on a moderate but solid recovery path and that sustainable private sector job growth has begun."The economy is moving ahead in a lengthy rehab process and will eventually return to full health and strength. This involves transitioning from monetary and fiscal stimulus to a self sustaining recovery in the private sector," said Stuart G. Hoffman, committee chairman and chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group Inc.The committee unanimously noted that a double-dip recession in the
U.S.
is very unlikely. More than 500,000 private industry jobs were created in the first five months of this year, and the committee foresees a total of 2.2 million new jobs in 2010 and another 2.5 million new jobs in 2011. Still, despite this job growth the unemployment rate is seen to still by around 9.5 percent by the end of the year.The full press release can be found here, while audio clips from the press conference can be listened to here.The full forecast sheet can be downloaded here.
10.06.16 (Source: American Bankers Association)
June 8, 2010
Bernanke: Recovery Gaining Traction
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last night that he believes the recovery is gaining traction and the economy will not slip back into a double-dip recession. “There seems to be a good bit of momentum in consumer spending and investment,” Bernanke told the
Woodrow
Wilson
International
Center
for Scholars in
Washington
,
D.C.
“My best guess is we’ll have continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific.”
There are concerns that the
U.S.
recovery could be derailed if
Europe
's debt crisis turns into a broader financial contagion. He said the Fed is monitoring the situation, and he believes European leaders are taking the right steps to deal with the problems. Bernanke also noted that with the economy growing at a moderate 3-3.5 percent pace, it will take time for the unemployment rate to come down.
|